IEA recent study “World Energy Outlook 2011” indicates 3.5 degrees of temperature increase till end of this century

November 10, 2011 by Chunfeng

The International Energy Agency (IEA) published this year's World Energy Outlook, in which it forecasts the world primary energy demand and power generation growth. In the basecase scenario, New Policy Scenario (NPS), the primary energy demand globally will increase 1.4% p.a. between 2009 and 2030. Fossil fuels remain dominant covering 75% of primary energy demand by 2030. Though the share of renewable energy sources increases significantly, oil remains the most important fuel by 2030 with a share of 28%, followed by coal with a share of 25% in 2030.

Electricity generation is expected to increase 2.5% p. a. from 20,043 TWh in 2009 to 33,417 TWh in 2030. This amounts to a total increase of 67% from 2009 to 2030. The share of fossil fuels in power generation is expected to decline from 67% to ~58% from 2009 to 2030. The share of Renewables in power generation mix grows significantly between 2009 and 2030, e.g. for wind from 1% in 2009 to 7% in 2030, and solar from less than 1% to ~2%. The share of hydro remains constant at ~16%. In total, the share of Renewables (incl. hydro) in worldwide electricity generation increases to ~29% in 2030 compared to ~18% in 2009.

WEO 2011 highlights that in order to limit the global average temperature increase to 2°C requires immediate action. Even though the New Policy Scenario materialized the increasing share of Renewables in power generation mix in order to curb global warming. Following the NPS scenario, the world is still on a trajectory of average temperature increase of more than 3.5°C by the end of this century.

Emission figures shows that carbon emissions from energy production reached a record high in 2010, reaching over 31 Gigatonnes. Previous studies estimated that emissions expected to fall due to the financial crisis did not follow suit, instead, starting from 2010 the emissions leading by emerging countries reach record high.

The IEA figures were particularly significant because emissions had been expected to fall as a result of the economic downturn. As a result of the recession, emissions fell in the UK and globally during 2009, leading some to suggest that the world had been given "breathing space" to start a shift to low-carbon infrastructure. The resurgence of carbon emissions makes it clear that this hasn't happened.

Australian blog Skeptical Science suggest that the best fit for our behaviour in the real world is currently IPCC Scenario A2, which describes a world where there is:

* Delayed development of renewable energy.

* Relatively slow change in current birth and death rates.

* Relatively slow reduction of inequality.

* Relatively slow improvement in energy efficiency.

* No barriers to the use of nuclear energy.

Scenario A2 gives a most likely global temperature rise of around 3.5°C by 2100 above temperatures in 2000 - more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels.

In order to curb the global carbon emissions, immediate actions need to be taken as the "the door to 2°C is closing".

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IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 Primary Energy Demand

IEA WEO CO2 Emission

ipcc_Scenario A2